The National Accounts Division (NAD) of the National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Government of India, in its First Advance Estimates of Gross Domestic Product has projected India’s real GDP growth at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26. International agencies have also projected robust growth for the Indian economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank projecting growth rates of 7.3 per cent and 6.6 per cent, respectively, for 2025-26.

According to the Advance Estimates, the Real Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP at constant prices) of Jammu & Kashmir is estimated to grow by 5.82 per cent, while the Nominal GSDP (GSDP at current prices) is estimated to grow by 8.89 per cent in 2025-26. The size of the economy of Jammu & Kashmir, as measured by Nominal GSDP, is estimated at approximately Rs.2.86 lakh crore, while Real GSDP is estimated at about Rs.1.50 lakh crore during 2025-26. Over the period 2019-20 to 2024-25, the Union Territory is estimated to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.47 per cent in real GSDP.

A comparison of the real growth performance of Jammu & Kashmir vis-à-vis northern States/UTs during 2019-20 to 2024-25 indicates a positive growth trend. During this period, Jammu & Kashmir is estimated to record a CAGR of 4.47 per cent, which is higher than that of Delhi (3.95 per cent), Himachal Pradesh (3.68 per cent) and marginally higher than Haryana (4.43 per cent).

The Per Capita Income (PCI) of Jammu & Kashmir has shown a steady increase over the period 2014-15 to 2025-26, rising by approximately 170 per cent, with the PCI estimated at Rs.1,68,243 in 2025-26 in nominal terms. Although the PCI of Jammu & Kashmir remains below the national average, the relative gap has exhibited a broadly narrowing trend over the period. The ratio of J&K’s PCI to India’s PCI has increased from 71.9 per cent in 2014-15 to about 76.5 per cent in 2025-26, indicating a gradual convergence towards the national average. This improvement suggests rising income levels, improved living standards, and enhanced economic opportunities for the residents of Jammu & Kashmir.

A comparative analysis of growth performance of Per Capita Income in nominal terms during the period 2019-20 to 2024-25 indicates that PCI of Jammu & Kashmir recorded a CAGR of about 8.81 per cent, which is higher than that observed in Himachal Pradesh (6.54 per cent), Delhi (6.74 per cent), Punjab (7.46 per cent), Chandigarh (8.21 per cent), and Haryana (8.72 per cent) during the same period.

The primary sector is estimated to contribute 20.45 per cent to the Gross State Value Added (GSVA) of Jammu & Kashmir in 2025-26 (Advance Estimates). Dominated by agriculture and allied activities, the sector continues to play a critical role in food security, livelihood support, and inclusive growth. As per PLFS 2023-24, the sector absorbs the largest share of the workforce (42.99 per cent), underscoring its continued importance in the Union Territory’s development process.

The secondary sector is estimated to account for about 18.52 per cent of GSVA in 202526, with an employment share of 25.7 per cent (PLFS 2023-24). Within the secondary sector, the construction sub-sector constitutes a major share of both value addition and employment, contributing 14.94 per cent of employment (PLFS 2023-24), reflecting ongoing infrastructure development and urbanisation activities in the Union Territory.

The tertiary (services) sector is estimated to account for the largest share of GSVA at 61.02 per cent in 2025-26, with an employment share of 31.31 per cent (PLFS 2023-24). Given its dominant contribution, the performance of the services sector remains critical to overall economic growth. The sector is, however, estimated to witness an easing in growth during the year, indicating a slowdown in services activity. This slowdown appears, inter alia, to be associated with lower activity in tourism-related services following a recent untoward incident in the Union Territory, which has led to reduced tourist inflows and subdued activity levels in related services.

* Source - Economic Survey 2025-26 Issued by Directorate of Economics & Statistics, J&K